In crypto circles, it’s almost an article of faith:
“When AGI finally arrives, it will naturally use crypto for payments.”
At first glance, the idea sounds exciting. Crypto is digital, decentralized, and programmable — traits that seem to align naturally with autonomous machine intelligence.
But when you think carefully, the fantasy falls apart. Not just a little — completely.
For starters, AGI (artificial general intelligence) does not exist today — and may never exist at all. It remains an uncertain future possibility, not an inevitable outcome. And even if AGI eventually emerges, it will do so slowly, messily, and under the constraints of existing human institutions.
The reality is: if AGI ever reaches the point of making payments autonomously, it will almost certainly use U.S. dollar-backed stablecoins — not volatile, impractical cryptocurrencies.
And understanding why exposes not just the limits of crypto today, but the real shape of the economic systems AGI would inherit.
AGI Won’t Appear Overnight — And It Won’t Build New Systems Instantly
First, it’s crucial to understand: AGI will not simply materialize out of nowhere.
There will be no sci-fi moment where one day there is no AGI and the next day there’s a godlike intelligence designing its own economy. Instead, AGI — if it is ever achieved — will develop slowly over many years:
- Gradual improvements in models and architectures,
- New capabilities integrated into existing industries,
- Ongoing negotiations between innovation, regulation, and public trust.
Even once AGI-level systems exist, they would operate inside existing human institutions, markets, and laws.
And crucially: even if an AGI wanted to create a brand-new payment system, it couldn’t just snap its fingers and make it happen.
Financial infrastructure — building networks of acceptance, merchant adoption, regulatory approval, security standards, and trust — takes years or even decades to mature.
AGI would have to use what already exists. And what exists today, at global scale, is the dollar system.
AGI Would Require Very Fast, Very Cheap, Massively Scalable Money
Any payment system suitable for AGI would need to meet strict criteria:
- Extremely fast transaction times (instant or near-instant finality),
- Extremely cheap fees (enabling billions of microtransactions),
- Massive scalability (handling millions of concurrent transactions),
- Predictable stability (for planning budgets and operations).
An economically active AGI would be constantly buying compute, APIs, information, services, electricity, and labor — and would need a money system that could operate at machine speed and scale.
Crypto Today Fails These Requirements
Crypto advocates imagine Bitcoin, Ethereum, or future decentralized chains serving AGI. But today’s crypto systems fail badly:
- Speed: Bitcoin is extremely slow; Ethereum even on L2s is nowhere near instant or consistently reliable at global scale.
- Cost: Transaction fees are volatile and still too high for microtransactions.
- Scalability: No blockchain today supports the required transaction volumes for AGI-level activity.
- Real-world acceptance: Crypto cannot be spent at meaningful scale — almost no merchants accept it directly, and real-world usage almost always requires fiat conversion.
- Volatility: Native crypto assets experience major price swings, creating serious budgeting and operational risks.
In short, an AGI trying to use Bitcoin or Ethereum to buy real-world resources would find itself locked out of the economy.
Dollars — Especially Stablecoins — Are Already the Solution
Meanwhile, U.S. dollar stablecoins already solve the problem today:
- Instant or near-instant settlement across fast networks,
- Low-cost transactions (especially on Layer 2 solutions),
- Price stability backed by fiat reserves and U.S. Treasuries,
- Wide acceptance among exchanges, fintech platforms, merchants, and payment processors.
An AGI needing to pay for cloud compute, rent GPUs, license datasets, or purchase services could already do so today using dollar stablecoins.
It wouldn’t need to invent anything new. It would simply plug into the existing system.
The U.S. Government Will (Surely) Demand AGI Systems Use Dollars
There’s another powerful reason: the U.S. government will absolutely insist that AGI financial activity remains inside the dollar system.
The dollar isn’t just currency — it’s a tool of U.S. political and economic power:
- It anchors international trade,
- Enables sanctions, compliance, and financial monitoring,
- Stabilizes U.S. domestic and foreign policy influence.
Allowing autonomous AGI systems to transact through independent, decentralized cryptocurrencies would be seen as a massive threat to national interests. Washington will strongly push for AGI transactions to remain dollar-denominated — via stablecoins or even future Fed-issued digital dollars.
Crypto assets that resist regulation will not be adopted at scale. They will be sidelined or shut out of major economic systems.
Even In the Best-Case Scenario, Building New Financial Infrastructure Takes Decades
Even if we imagine an unlikely world where AGI wanted to use a brand-new decentralized financial system, the practical obstacles would be overwhelming:
- Building trust and adoption networks,
- Achieving regulatory clarity and compliance,
- Creating merchant acceptance and integration into supply chains,
- Overcoming risk, fraud, and security challenges at scale.
These are not simply engineering problems. They are political, social, and economic challenges that historically take years — often decades — to solve.
AGI, for all its intelligence, would not be able to instantly conjure a trusted, global financial network out of thin air. It would have to operate within the rails that already exist: the U.S. dollar system.
Conclusion: AGI Payments Will Be Dollarized
Crypto enthusiasts imagine a world where AGI operates freely on decentralized networks, bypassing government control and paying autonomously in Bitcoin or Ethereum.
But that’s surely a fantasy.
The reality is:
- AGI may never exist — it remains highly uncertain,
- Even if it emerges, it will develop slowly over many years,
- AGI will require extremely fast, cheap, scalable, and stable money,
- Crypto is nowhere near delivering these capabilities,
- Dollar stablecoins already meet most requirements,
- The U.S. government will likely demand dollar-denominated financial activity from AGI systems,
- Building new financial infrastructure takes decades, not minutes.
If AGI needs to pay for anything, it will pay in dollars — specifically in regulated, U.S. treasury-backed stablecoins.
The future may be digital, autonomous, and intelligent. But it will still be built on the U.S. dollar.
“The dollar’s reign won’t end with the rise of machines — it will extend into the age of AGI.”
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